Australia has increased its forecast for resource export earnings in the 2025-26 financial year by 4%, to A$383 billion ($252.5 billion). This revision follows a surge in gold export value driven by record-high prices and a strong iron ore market. The Department of Industry’s December report highlights gold’s growing importance, as it is expected to overtake liquefied natural gas (LNG) as Australia’s second most valuable resource export. This change reflects heightened geopolitical uncertainty, which continues to fuel demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Gold’s Ascendancy and Commodity Price Trends

The department projects gold export earnings will reach A$69 billion in 2025-26, a 15% increase from its September estimate of A$60 billion. Gold prices hit a record peak above $4,350 a troy ounce in October and are forecasted to remain near $4,000 throughout 2026 before easing in 2027. Despite gold’s rise, iron ore remains Australia’s dominant export commodity, expected to generate about 25% of total resource and energy earnings over the next two years.

Iron ore prices are currently forecast to average $87 a ton this financial year. For 2026-27, the Department of Industry raised the iron ore price estimate by $1 to $83 a ton, reflecting abundant supply and a moderating global steel demand. Copper export values are gaining momentum due to growing demand from data centers and technological investments. Copper price forecasts for 2025-26 were revised up 12% to $10,658 per ton, with a 10% increase to $10,896 per ton expected in 2026-27.

Critical minerals are also poised for growth. Their export value is projected to rise to A$14 billion in 2026-27 from around A$11 billion in 2024-25. This increase is largely due to recovery in manganese shipments alongside boosted exports of rare earths and antimony, essential elements for technology and green-energy sectors.

Policy Environment and Economic Context

The upgrade to Australia’s resource export outlook is supported by easier monetary and fiscal policies alongside rising investment prompted by artificial intelligence adoption and the energy transition. Though earnings remain below the post-pandemic peak of A$466 billion recorded in 2022-23, they are robust by historical standards. The depreciation of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar has also contributed to increased export revenue.

Geopolitical instability has amplified investor interest in gold, reinforcing its status as a critical safe-haven export. This shift signals notable realignments within Australia’s resource export profile and the broader global commodities market. With copper and critical minerals expanding, Australia is positioning itself as a vital supplier for emerging technology and renewable energy industries.

Gold: Market Outlook

Australia is on track to earn A$383 billion in resource exports for 2025-26, chiefly driven by a gold bonanza alongside steady iron ore demand. Gold’s elevation above LNG as the second largest export underscores its strategic relevance amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investors should continue monitoring precious metals closely, considering their influence on Australia’s resource economy alongside the rising significance of copper and critical minerals in supporting technological advancement and the energy transition.