Bank of America (BofA) forecasts copper prices to continue rising through 2026 due to persistent supply difficulties and shifting global demand trends. Analysts Michael Widmer and Danica Averion highlighted that copper could average around $11,750 a metric ton next year, driven largely by elevated shipments to the U.S., tightening worldwide supply, and the prospect of Federal Reserve monetary easing affecting the U.S. dollar. This projection follows recent copper price gains amid market concerns over metal availability.

Copper Market Tensions and Supply Constraints

The copper market faces significant pressure from constrained global supplies. Traders have increased copper shipments into the U.S. to mitigate risks linked to potential sweeping tariffs under the Trump administration. This re-routing tightens availability in other parts of the world, further supporting prices. On Wednesday, copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.6% to $11,362 a metric ton, peaking intraday near $11,434.50.

BofA’s experts emphasize that supply shortages are likely to persist into 2026, keeping the market in deficit unless Chinese demand contracts by more than 3%. The supply-demand imbalance is compounded by expectations of a December interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which could stimulate economic growth and weaken the U.S. dollar, thereby supporting copper prices despite broader economic uncertainties.

Changing Demand Patterns: China Versus Western Economies

China, the world’s largest consumer of copper, is projected to experience a sharp slowdown in demand growth next year. Bank of America predicts only a 0.5% increase in Chinese copper consumption for 2026, marking the slowest annual growth since 1988. This subdued outlook reflects headwinds from fading infrastructure cycles, shifts in regional policy, and geopolitical tensions, following a period of rapid expansion that has elevated copper prices from $1,500 a metric ton 25 years ago to above $10,000 today.

Conversely, demand in Western markets, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, is expected to strengthen and help offset China’s slowdown. BofA analysts maintain a “constructive” stance on copper despite forecasting a challenging global economic environment in 2026, suggesting resilience in these regions could sustain metal consumption and support the market.

Copper: Market Outlook

Overall, Bank of America’s outlook points to a copper market balanced on persistent supply constraints and evolving demand dynamics across regions. With prices anticipated to average $11,750 per metric ton throughout 2026, the metal’s trajectory will hinge on ongoing elevated shipments to the U.S., anticipated Federal Reserve easing, and the interplay of subdued Chinese growth alongside firmer consumption in Western economies. Investors should closely monitor these elements as they shape copper’s supply-demand landscape going forward.