U.S. semiconductor firms Nvidia and AMD stand to benefit from potential growth linked to the resumption of GPU exports to China, contingent on export approvals. Analysts suggest that NVIDIA could generate up to $12.5 billion in incremental revenue as early as 2026, with AMD expecting hundreds of millions in additional sales. However, the complex regulatory environment and export license fees introduce uncertainties to this growth potential.

Analyst Scenarios Highlight Growth Amid Regulatory Complexity

Simon Leopold, an analyst at Raymond James, underscores the multifaceted nature of the situation, making precise forecasts challenging. He estimates that AMD’s incremental revenue from the China market could fall between $500 million and $800 million in 2026. This translates into an uplift of approximately $0.10 to $0.20 in non-GAAP earnings per share. For Nvidia, the upside is significantly larger, with potential additional revenue ranging from $7 billion to $12.5 billion and a projected EPS increase between $0.15 and $0.30.

These projections depend heavily on whether Chinese authorities permit or restrict their cloud operators from purchasing advanced GPUs. Furthermore, the U.S. government’s export license mandates a 15% fee on these sales, adding complexity to pricing and accounting. Any revenue growth is likely to materialize gradually, with timing and scale remaining uncertain.

Company-Specific Growth Drivers and Market Dynamics

For AMD, speculation centers on the sale of China-compliant MI308 accelerator units, particularly those ordered by Alibaba. Estimates indicate orders for 40,000 to 50,000 units priced around $15,000 each, potentially generating approximately $675 million in revenue spread out over multiple quarters. Though moderate relative to AMD’s total revenue, this marks an important growth catalyst as the company expands in the Chinese market.

Nvidia’s growth prospects hinge on the potential resumption of H200 GPU shipments to major Chinese hyperscalers and internet firms. Even modest volume shipments — tens of thousands of units priced between $20,000 and $25,000 — could generate significant incremental revenue. Over time, shipment volumes could reach 350,000 to 500,000 units, potentially yielding billions in additional sales. Despite this, China constitutes only a small part of Nvidia’s broader data center business, which is primarily fueled by demand from U.S. hyperscalers and other sovereign AI clients.

Growth: Market Outlook

Leopold stresses that AI infrastructure represents a multi-trillion-dollar growth opportunity over the next decade. He maintains a Strong Buy rating on Nvidia, citing its leading market share, profit margins, and robust global growth drivers. The potential Chinese market expansion complements a widely diversified growth trajectory propelled by AI demand worldwide.

To summarize, if export licenses enabling GPU sales to China proceed, Nvidia and AMD stand to realize meaningful incremental revenues as early as 2026. Though regulatory hurdles and the 15% U.S. export fee present challenges, these developments highlight notable growth prospects for both companies and emphasize the broader global expansion powering AI infrastructure advancement.