Deutsche Bank revised its outlook on the European steel sector on November 26, 2025, citing a significant policy shift in trade protection initiated by the European Commission. The bank’s analysts, Bastian Synagowitz and Liam Fitzpatrick, emphasized that this change could fundamentally improve market conditions for steel producers challenged by weak demand and import competition. Their upgraded ratings and price target increases reflect anticipation of stronger regulatory support that could enhance the sector’s profitability and valuation next year.

Deutsche Bank Lifts Steel Sector Ratings and Price Targets

The Deutsche Bank research team highlighted ongoing difficulties faced by the European steel industry, including subdued demand and policy headwinds. However, they also pointed to supportive elements like fiscal stimulus and easing interest rates. Crucially, they underscored the European Commission’s planned material step-up in trade protections as a game-changer likely to create a “structurally higher return and lower risk environment” for steelmakers in 2026.

In response, the bank raised price targets for key steel companies. Acerinox’s target moved up from €14 to €16, Aperam’s from €37 to €42, while ArcelorMittal’s Amsterdam-listed shares advanced from €38 to €42. Similarly, ArcelorMittal’s New York-listed stock target increased from $44 to $49. Voestalpine’s price target was lifted from €41 to €44.

Salzgitter received a notable upgrade from a Hold to a Buy rating, with a substantial price target increase from €27 to €40. Conversely, Outokumpu and SSAB were maintained at Hold ratings but saw their price targets rise to €4.1 (from €3.6) and SEK60 (from SEK55), respectively.

Policy Implications and Sector Outlook

The European Commission’s intensified trade protection plan marks a strategic pivot toward more steel-friendly industrial policy. Deutsche Bank’s analysts compared its impact to that seen in sectors like cement and defense, which previously benefited from similar supportive policy reforms. They expect this to reverse the valuation deflation endured by European steel over the past eight years, potentially restoring valuations to mid-cycle levels.

This development comes amid persistent softness in global steel demand, with import pressures continuing to challenge margins. The bank anticipates that tighter controls on steel imports and stronger fiscal backing will enhance European steel companies’ profitability and reduce downside risks.

The upward revisions in price targets across established steel producers indicate growing investor confidence. These adjustments signal that the steel sector could enjoy a recovery in fundamentals, supported by new regulatory frameworks and improving market dynamics as 2026 unfolds.

Steel: Market Outlook

Deutsche Bank’s November 26 update, featuring significant price target boosts and a crucial rating upgrade for Salzgitter, underscores how policymaking drives European steel’s future prospects. The banks’ top picks include ArcelorMittal, Aperam, Acerinox, and Voestalpine, all rated Buy, reflecting expected benefits from the European Commission’s trade protection efforts. While challenges persist, evolving policy support and macroeconomic factors set the stage for a strengthened steel sector outlook heading into 2026.