Deutsche Bank hikes 2026 gold price forecast amid strong demand and limited supply growth

Deutsche Bank updated its outlook on gold prices on November 26, 2025, anticipating the precious metal to average $4,450 per ounce in 2026, a notable increase from its earlier forecast of $4,000. This revision reflects sustained investor interest, firm central bank purchases, and subdued supply responses. The bank expects gold to trade within a wide range of $3,950 to $4,950 per ounce during the year, with the upper bound approximately 14% above current December 2026 futures prices.

Central Bank Purchasing and Investor Flows Support Gold

The upgraded forecast is driven by stabilizing short-term market flows, positive technical signals, and persistent supply-demand imbalances favoring gold. Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh emphasizes that demand from central banks shows inelastic characteristics, as many reserve managers plan to increase gold allocations. Surveys reveal the largest proportion of central banks intending to boost gold holdings in several years. One respondent described gold as the “ultimate protection against black swan tail risk events.”

Despite a modest decline in official sector buying through 2025, third-quarter demand from central banks ranked as the third highest on record in real-dollar terms. Moreover, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reversed a four-year trend of outflows, registering net inflows so far this year. Hsueh suggests that a brief recent liquidation phase indicates strong support near $3,900 per ounce. This level is expected to be reinforced by typically robust buying patterns early in each year.

Supply Dynamics and Sector Constraints

Gold supply growth is expected to remain moderate, with mine production forecast at approximately 3,715 tonnes in 2026. Hsueh points out that mining projects continue to rely on conservative price assumptions, often well below current market prices. This disconnect leads to slow supply elasticity despite rising gold prices. Additionally, a notable supply disruption is forecast at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine, offsetting production from upcoming projects. Recycling activity also stays below historical highs, further limiting incremental supply.

Potential risks to Deutsche Bank’s forecast include a sharper equity market correction than anticipated, fewer or delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a significant slowdown in official gold purchases. Nonetheless, gold’s relative strength versus the U.S. dollar and its unusually wide 2025 trading range—the largest since 1980—provide a solid foundation for the precious metal’s outlook.

Gold: Market Outlook

Deutsche Bank’s revised forecast sets the average price of gold at $4,450 per ounce for 2026, expecting it to fluctuate between $3,950 and $4,950. Central bank resilience, recovering ETF demand, and constrained supply growth form the basis of this bullish stance. Investors should continue tracking Fed monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and equity market developments as these factors could shift gold’s trajectory. As a strategic safe haven, gold remains well positioned to benefit from ongoing economic uncertainties and evolving market conditions in the coming year.