On November 26, 2025, gold prices gained momentum amid a wave of disappointing U.S. economic data, which has strengthened market confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its December meeting. Spot gold advanced 0.3% to $4,154.60 per ounce in early U.S. trading, while February gold futures rose 0.5% to $4,187.60 an ounce. The price increase reflects mounting expectations of monetary easing as key indicators point to a slowing U.S. economy.

Gold Rises on Signs of U.S. Economic Slowdown and Fed Rate Cut Prospects

Recent data released for September and November reveal subdued economic activity. Retail sales barely grew in September, consumer confidence decreased in November, and core producer price inflation contracted beyond forecasts. These figures arrive ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for December 9–10. Meanwhile, labor market and inflation data for October remain delayed indefinitely due to an ongoing government shutdown, creating uncertainty about the economy’s current momentum. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, is now slated for release on December 5.

Market sentiment has shifted dramatically, with the CME FedWatch tool showing an over 80% probability that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in December. This contrasts sharply with last week’s roughly 40% chance. Lower rates typically boost gold’s attractiveness since the precious metal does not yield interest, reducing the opportunity cost of holding it. Alongside gold, other precious metals rallied notably. Spot silver jumped 1.5% to $51.86 an ounce, nearing record highs, while platinum added 0.6% to $1,574.05 an ounce.

Deutsche Bank’s Upgraded 2026 Gold Forecast Reflects Strong Demand and Tight Supply

Deutsche Bank has increased its gold price outlook for 2026 to an average of $4,450 per ounce, up from its prior $4,000 forecast. The anticipated trading range spans $3,950 to $4,950 per ounce, with the higher end representing about a 14% premium over current December 2026 futures. The bank attributes this revision to sustained investor demand, persistent central bank purchases, and a limited supply response.

Michael Hsueh, a Deutsche Bank analyst, highlighted structural drivers supporting gold’s strength, emphasizing inelastic central bank demand and rising exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows diverting supply from the jewellery sector. Demand growth continues to outpace available supply. Despite a mild dip in official gold buying in 2025, surveys show a rebound in central bank acquisitions is expected next year. One reserve manager characterized gold as the “ultimate protection against black swan tail risk events.” Notably, third-quarter official gold demand reached the third highest real-dollar level on record despite elevated prices.

Industrial Metals Gain Momentum Alongside Precious Metals

Industrial metals also benefited from positive shifts. On the London Metal Exchange, benchmark copper futures rose 1% to $10,963.90 per tonne, supported by news that Codelco, Chile’s largest copper producer, plans significant price hikes for its Chinese clients. Deutsche Bank increased its 2026 copper price forecast to $10,600 per tonne and expects peak prices to exceed $11,000 per tonne during the first half of 2026. Supply disruptions have driven copper near record highs.

Despite expectations of a slowdown in Chinese demand in the latter half of 2025 and worries about speculative bubbles related to artificial intelligence investments, Deutsche Bank underpinned confidence in the continuation of an incentive-based pricing regime. The bank pointed to global electricity demand outpacing GDP growth in 2024, which supports strong long-term copper demand through electrification and digitalization trends.

With Fed easing anticipated amid economic uncertainties, gold remains a market focus. Its recent gains, coupled with upward revisions in analyst forecasts, reaffirm its role as a safe haven and inflation hedge in today’s evolving financial landscape.