Gold prices held steady on November 20, 2025, as investors reacted to mixed U.S. nonfarm payrolls data that revealed stronger-than-expected job creation alongside a higher unemployment rate. Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $4,087.21 an ounce at 09:15 ET amid continuing market debate over the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cuts in December.

Mixed U.S. Payrolls Data Creates Ambiguity for Gold Markets

The latest report from the U.S. Labor Department showed September nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 jobs, surpassing economists’ consensus of a 50,000 gain and marking an improvement from a revised 4,000 decline in August. Conversely, the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly to 4.4%, its highest in four years, up from 4.3% the previous month. This divergence highlights signs of a weakening labor market despite positive employment growth.

Other recent indicators, including private sector employment data and weekly jobless claims, further suggest a steady softening in the U.S. job market. These developments sustain market speculation that the Federal Reserve might ease monetary policy by cutting rates to support the economy. Nonetheless, minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting revealed growing divisions among policymakers on the timing and scale of further rate reductions, injecting uncertainty into gold’s price direction.

Other precious metals also remained relatively unchanged, with spot platinum rising 0.1% to $1,558.95 an ounce, while silver eased slightly to $50.833 an ounce.

UBS Raises 2026 Gold Price Forecast Amid Broader Risks

UBS boosted its mid-2026 gold price projection to $4,500 per ounce from an earlier $4,200 target. The firm cited ongoing drivers behind gold’s standout performance this year, which has positioned the metal as the strongest major asset of 2025. Strategist Wayne Gordon and his team pointed to a combination of prospective Federal Reserve rate cuts, declining real yields, persistent geopolitical tensions, and mounting fiscal challenges in the U.S. as key factors sustaining demand.

UBS also emphasized that political uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. midterm elections is adding to safe-haven interest from both financial investors and central banks. Meanwhile, concerns over expansive fiscal spending across developed economies underpin gold’s resilience. Rising Japanese government bond yields and escalating diplomatic friction between China and Japan further enhance haven appeal.

Global equity markets experienced a broad rebound supported by strong earnings from Nvidia Corp, yet this did not significantly detract from gold’s safe-haven demand amid a complex macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop.

Gold: Market Outlook

Spot gold maintaining near $4,087 an ounce on November 20 marks a pause following two days of gains fueled by rate cut speculation. The mixed U.S. jobs data complicates predictions for the Federal Reserve’s December policy decision, as robust job additions contrast with increasing unemployment. UBS’s revised forecast to $4,500 by mid-2026 reflects these uncertainties along with geopolitical and fiscal risks. As such, gold remains a pivotal asset for investors seeking protection against inflation and market volatility in the coming year.