Goldman Sachs released its 2026 commodities forecast on December 18, projecting a rise in gold prices to $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026. This outlook relies on continued strong central bank purchases and anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts supporting the precious metal. At the same time, the investment bank expects oil prices to fall through 2026 before recovering later in the decade. Copper remains a key favorite industrial metal due to its role in electrification and ongoing tariff uncertainties.

Goldman Sachs Forecasts Gold Surge Driven by Central Bank Demand

The bank anticipates gold prices climbing approximately 14% from current levels to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 under its base-case scenario. This forecast is supported by structurally elevated central bank acquisitions and potential cyclical boosts from expected Fed rate cuts. As of the report’s publication, spot gold traded at $4,334.93 per ounce. Goldman Sachs recommends maintaining long positions in gold, highlighting its safe-haven appeal and diversification benefits for both institutional and retail investors amid uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

Oil Prices Projected to Decline in 2026 Before Longer-Term Recovery

Goldman projects Brent crude prices to average $56 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) around $52 per barrel during 2026, signaling a notable drop from recent levels. The bank expects the oil market to reach a new balance by mid-2026, assuming no significant supply disruptions or OPEC production cuts. This forecast factors in steady demand growth near 1.2 million barrels per day, ongoing sanctions-related reductions in Russian output, and slowing production outside OPEC countries excluding Russia.

Despite the anticipated dip, Goldman expects oil prices to rebound starting in the fourth quarter of 2026. By late 2028, Brent could climb to $80 per barrel and WTI to $76 per barrel, driven by tighter market fundamentals and the need to promote investments in long-cycle oil projects.

Copper Demand Remains Strong Amid Tariff and Supply Uncertainties

Copper holds the status of Goldman Sachs’ preferred industrial metal heading into 2026, with an average price forecast of $11,400 per metric ton in the base case. The bank foresees copper prices consolidating after recent rallies, influenced by lingering uncertainties over potential U.S. tariffs on refined copper slated for possible implementation in 2027. Electrification, accounting for nearly half of copper consumption, remains a significant structural demand driver.

As of December 18, the London Metal Exchange’s benchmark three-month copper price hovered around $11,721.50 per metric ton. Goldman attributes sustained supply constraints from mining and copper’s critical role in the green energy transition as central to its bullish long-term outlook.

Additional Market Insights and Sector Risks

Goldman also projects natural gas prices in Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) to average 29 euros per megawatt-hour for 2026 and decline to 20 euros per megawatt-hour in 2027. U.S. natural gas prices are expected to average $4.60 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in 2026 and $3.80/mmBtu in 2027. These levels are anticipated to support increased U.S. gas production.

The bank warns of tightening spare capacity in U.S. power markets due to rapid demand growth and coal plant retirements outpacing renewable and natural gas capacity additions. With approximately 72% of U.S. data centers concentrated in just 1% of counties, Goldman highlights the risk of localized price spikes and potential electricity outages in some regions.

Energy and Metals Outlook for 2026 and Beyond

Goldman Sachs’ forecast projects gold prices climbing to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, underscoring gold’s enduring safe-haven status amid global uncertainties. While oil prices face downward pressure next year, a recovery is expected by the end of 2028 as supply tightens. Copper maintains its favored position among industrial metals, buoyed by the electrification trend and supply constraints. These projections suggest important shifts across commodity markets, offering investors and industry stakeholders key insights into the evolving landscape throughout 2026 and beyond.