On December 18, 2025, Morgan Stanley issued a research note forecasting that “agentic shoppers”—AI-driven digital personal assistants—will significantly alter U.S. retail by 2030. These assistants help consumers discover, compare, and purchase products more interactively. The firm estimates the agentic shopping trend could boost U.S. e-commerce spending between $50 billion and $115 billion, impacting retail profitability and advertising strategies across the sector.

Agentic Shopping’s Disruptive Potential in Retail

Agentic commerce is transforming how consumers navigate online retail, evolving the buying process into a more personalized and conversational experience. Tech leaders like Alphabet and OpenAI are pioneering this shift alongside major retailers such as Amazon and Walmart. These AI-powered agents automate tasks like price comparison, product pairing, and repeat purchases, driving changes in consumer behavior.

Morgan Stanley applies its “5 I’s” analytical framework—Inventory, Infrastructure, Innovation, Incrementality, and Income Statement—to assess retailer readiness. The assessment highlights vulnerabilities for companies heavily reliant on high-margin, direct consumer traffic that third-party agents might divert. Amazon, Walmart, and eBay rate strongly due to their scale and infrastructure, while specialty retailers Five Below and Etsy are deemed less advantaged and face margin pressures.

The note cautions that profitability depends crucially on “incrementality,” meaning new sales generated by agentic shoppers. Retailers would need roughly 50% of agentic-driven transactions to be incremental to achieve breakeven on EBIT at a 5% agent fee, which Morgan Stanley notes is a challenging target.

Retail Sector Winners, Losers, and Advertising Impacts

Within retail, Morgan Stanley identifies Target as facing increased margin risks from partnering with third-party agents. In contrast, companies like Chewy and Wayfair could unlock new revenue streams by integrating agentic shopping technologies. The evolving commerce landscape also benefits digital advertising platforms. Morgan Stanley highlights Meta, YouTube, and AppLovin as potential winners poised to capitalize on fresh demand for targeted and interactive advertising amid shifting consumer traffic patterns.

This development encapsulates a growing convergence between generative AI and e-commerce, requiring retail businesses and digital ad platforms alike to adapt swiftly to maintain competitiveness.

Retail: Market Outlook

Morgan Stanley’s projection of a $50 billion to $115 billion increase in U.S. e-commerce by 2030 encapsulates the agentic shopper trend as a major generative AI-enabled opportunity. Retailers with robust inventory management, extensive infrastructure, and digital innovation capabilities—specifically Amazon, Walmart, and eBay—are positioned to capitalize most effectively. Meanwhile, retailers with limited scale or infrastructure face significant profit margin challenges.

Simultaneously, digital advertising leaders like Meta, YouTube, and AppLovin are expected to benefit notably from the new monetization avenues created by agentic commerce. Investors and retail strategists should closely follow these shifts, as the balance of profit growth and margin risks from third-party agent partnerships will shape retail sector dynamics in the years ahead.