Nigeria’s economy demonstrated ongoing resilience in November as the private sector sustained growth, driven by easing inflation and robust demand. The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) settled at 53.6, slightly down from 54.0 in October but still signaling a 12th consecutive month of improved business conditions across agriculture, manufacturing, wholesale & retail, and service industries. These trends highlight a steady expansion amid easing cost pressures.

Private Sector Expansion Fueled by Reduced Inflationary Strains

November saw new orders climb to a three-month peak of 56.9, rising from 56.3 in October as companies cited new product launches, customer expansion, and increased sales volume as growth drivers. A key contributor was the marked easing of inflationary pressures on input costs, which reached their lowest levels in almost five years. Purchase price increases moderated, and wage growth slowed, while output price inflation dipped to its slowest pace since April 2020. This stabilization supported a rapid increase in purchasing activity—the strongest in seven months—prompting firms to boost inventories in anticipation of future demand.

Employment edged upward modestly, and supplier delivery times improved for the fifth consecutive month. However, backlogs of work rose for the first time in four months, reflecting delayed payments from some customers and indicating ongoing liquidity challenges within the economy. Business confidence declined for a fifth month to its lowest point since May, yet many respondents remained optimistic due to planned investments and expansion initiatives.

Analyst Scenarios and Economic Outlook

Muyiwa Oni, Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, reaffirmed a forecast of 4.0% economic growth for Nigeria in 2025. The outlook anticipates both manufacturing and services sectors to outperform their 2024 growth levels. The continued easing of inflation and sustained private sector momentum set a constructive foundation for investment and economic stability, though attention is warranted on payment delays and the gradual weakening of business confidence.

Nigeria’s economy appears well-positioned to sustain growth as the private sector expands and inflationary pressures subside. With multiple sectors demonstrating strength and input cost inflation easing, market participants and policymakers alike will monitor developments closely as the 2025 growth trajectory unfolds.