Oil prices gained momentum on Monday as OPEC+ reaffirmed its decision to maintain production cuts through the first quarter of 2026. Brent crude futures for March delivery climbed 1.0% to $62.58 a barrel, while February contracts rose 1.0% to $63.01. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contracts also advanced 1.0% to $59.11 a barrel, supported by escalating supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions and damage to Russian oil-export infrastructure.

OPEC+ Holds Output Steady, Eyes Capacity Reviews

On Sunday, OPEC+ reiterated its plan to keep crude output steady for the first quarter of 2026, continuing voluntary production cuts totaling approximately 3.24 million barrels per day. The alliance adopted a cautious approach amid uneven global demand and signs of potential oversupply in the upcoming year.

Additionally, OPEC+ agreed to implement a new framework to assess each member’s maximum production capacity from January through September 2026. This evaluation will form the basis for establishing production baselines for 2027. ING analysts pointed out that this system could trigger disagreements within the group, as member countries may seek to secure higher baselines to increase their output quotas.

Geopolitical Tensions and Infrastructure Attacks Pressure Supply

Fresh supply risks have compounded market uncertainties. U.S. President Donald Trump announced he is considering closing Venezuelan airspace, amid military strikes on vessels accused of drug trafficking near Venezuelan waters and increased U.S. military presence in the region. Venezuela exports roughly 800,000 barrels per day of crude, mostly destined for China. ING analysts stressed that any further escalation in U.S.-Venezuela tensions could disrupt this important supply line, boosting upward pressure on oil prices.

Further complicating the supply outlook, weekend attacks targeted Russian energy infrastructure. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which transports Kazakh and Russian crude through the Black Sea, suspended operations after a naval drone strike damaged mooring points at its Novorossiysk terminal. CPC’s shipments have averaged about 1.48 million barrels per day this year, up around 200,000 barrels from last year due to Tengiz field expansion in Kazakhstan. This event underscores the vulnerability of critical oil export routes, intensifying market sensitivity to supply interruptions.

Oil: Market Outlook

With OPEC+ maintaining its output curbs of roughly 3.24 million barrels per day into early 2026, Brent crude currently trades around $62.58 per barrel, and WTI near $59.11. The introduction of a capacity review mechanism to set 2027 baselines suggests OPEC+ may face internal quota disputes later this year. Meanwhile, geopolitical developments—including U.S. considerations over Venezuelan airspace and damage to Russian pipeline infrastructure—pose tangible risks to global oil supply. These factors will remain central to oil price movements and investor strategies in the near term.