Key Takeaways
- Samsung Electronics’ stock surged 108% year-to-date in 2025, with Morgan Stanley forecasting continued bullish momentum in 2026.
- Morgan Stanley projects Samsung’s Q4 2025 preliminary operating profit at KRW18 trillion, largely driven by strong memory product sales.
- DRAM and NAND prices are climbing sharply, underpinning expectations for Samsung’s memory profits to increase 310% in 2026.
Samsung Electronics has posted a striking 108% gain in its share price so far in 2025. Despite this exceptional rally, Morgan Stanley analysts maintain a bullish outlook for the South Korean tech giant as it heads into 2026. The firm points to sustained demand across Samsung’s semiconductor segment and robust pricing trends as major growth drivers.
Morgan Stanley Emphasizes Bullish Memory Sector Dynamics
In a recent update, Morgan Stanley analyst Shawn Kim anticipates Samsung will report very strong preliminary earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025 when released on January 8. The investment bank forecasts operating profit of approximately KRW18 trillion, with memory products contributing upwards of KRW15 trillion. This performance is buoyed by improved foundry results and resilient demand for smartphones and OLED display panels.
At the core of Morgan Stanley’s bullish strategy lies an early upcycle in the memory market. DRAM prices are expected to rise close to 50% quarter-on-quarter, while NAND flash is projected to increase around 30%. These price gains are supported by a richer product mix emphasizing higher-margin server and embedded solid-state drives (eSSD). Moreover, the bank reports favorable feedback on new HBM4 (High Bandwidth Memory 4) samples, with no revisions required to previous forecasts.
Analyst Scenarios: Profit Projections for 2026
Morgan Stanley projects Samsung’s memory business profits to surge by an extraordinary 310% in 2026, potentially approaching KRW100 trillion. The analyst predicts continued DRAM price increases of 30–40% in the first quarter, which would significantly enhance margins and overall operating income. Despite Samsung’s stock rallying substantially this year, Morgan Stanley expects shares could again challenge their prior peak at a 2x price-to-book ratio.
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Kim highlights that earnings estimates remain on a steep upward trajectory. The supply-demand balance is currently favorable, and recent interruptions, such as in the HBM supply chain, appear to be temporary. The firm reiterates Samsung’s strong competitive positioning and supply outlook as essential factors underpinning the bullish sentiment.
This positive stance coincides with a broader technology sector rebound, powered by increased capital spending on cloud infrastructure and consumer electronics. Samsung Electronics’ dominant memory chip market role positions it to benefit considerably, supporting continued growth momentum into 2026.
Bullish: Market Outlook
Samsung’s 108% year-to-date stock appreciation in 2025 lays a solid foundation for further gains. With Morgan Stanley expecting a preliminary Q4 operating profit near KRW18 trillion and memory division profits projected to more than triple next year, the company is on track for sustained expansion. The firm’s bullish outlook reflects confidence that Samsung’s leadership in memory technology will continue to drive earnings growth and investor interest throughout 2026. Market participants will be closely watching the upcoming earnings release as a key validation of this optimistic forecast.
