The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintained its U.S. soybean export forecast at a 13-year low of 1.635 billion bushels for the 2025/26 marketing year ending August 31, following renewed purchases from China. Released on December 9, the report highlights a 13% decrease from the prior year amid partial recovery in Chinese demand after a trade dispute-induced hiatus. Despite this improvement, market pressures persist, as soybean futures fell sharply and total sales remain far below typical levels.

China’s Partial Return to Soybean Market

China, the world’s largest importer of soybeans, restarted buying U.S. soybeans after the October meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. The White House revealed that China committed to purchasing 12 million metric tons from the current crop, with confirmed sales of about 2.9 million metric tons already dispatched. However, these figures fall significantly short of historical volumes, continuing to weigh on soybean prices and American farmers’ revenues.

USDA data up to early November showed total soybean sales across all destinations down nearly 40% year-over-year. This substantial shortfall signals that the USDA’s export projection could still be revised downward. Ted Seifried, chief strategist at Zaner Group, commented that the USDA might be “leaving the door open” for additional purchases either from China or other global buyers to bridge the gap.

Market Response and Broader Agricultural Impacts

Following the USDA’s report, soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped to their lowest level since October 30. By contrast, corn futures gained momentum. The USDA raised its U.S. corn export forecast by 125 million bushels, reaching a record 3.2 billion bushels due to stronger-than-anticipated global demand. Correspondingly, ending corn stocks were revised downward from 2.154 billion to 2.029 billion bushels, reflecting tightening supplies.

In a move to offset trade-related stress on farmers, the White House announced a $12 billion aid package targeted at those impacted by export disruptions. This intervention demonstrates a federal effort to alleviate economic hardship caused by ongoing trade tensions.

Soybeans: Market Outlook

USDA forecasts place soybean exports for 2025/26 at 1.635 billion bushels, marking a 13% decline from the previous year and the lowest level since 2012/13. Ending stocks remain steady at 290 million bushels, underscoring persistent supply-side challenges. Although China’s resumed purchases bring some relief, the significant drop in total sales suggests continued volatility in the soybean market.

Investors and industry stakeholders should closely watch China’s buying activity, as sustained demand increases could ease current market pressures. Meanwhile, the corn export upgrade and government assistance for farmers will influence commodity markets in the near term. Soybeans continue to be a critical focus as trade dynamics shape agricultural sector performance heading into 2026.