On December 29, 2025, Evercore analysts released a comprehensive forecast that emphasizes a sustained surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investments worldwide through 2030. Highlighting major commitments by corporations and governments alike, the report forecasts AI’s economic impact could reach $2 trillion added to the global GDP by the end of the decade. This outlook illustrates the collaborative momentum of the private sector and policy frameworks in fostering long-term AI growth.

Evercore’s Forecast Highlights Ongoing AI Investment Acceleration

Evercore’s analysis points to an 18% average annual growth in AI investments through 2030, a rate that surpasses other technology sectors. The surge follows rapid advances starting in 2023, fueled by corporations digitizing operations and governments boosting AI research. The report highlights key players such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia. Microsoft, for instance, recently pledged $15 billion over five years to scale AI platforms, while Nvidia reported an AI chip revenue exceeding $30 billion in 2025.

According to Evercore’s base-case scenario, this steady investment rhythm would enable AI to contribute approximately $2 trillion to global GDP by 2030. The best-case outlook envisions an even stronger surge, with AI pushing GDP gains to $3 trillion, driven by breakthrough applications in healthcare, finance, and manufacturing. Conversely, the worst-case scenario assumes slower growth at 10% annually due to regulatory fragmentation and supply-chain challenges, limiting AI’s GDP contribution to $1.2 trillion.

Policy Influence and Geopolitical Factors Drive AI Expansion

Policy initiatives play a pivotal role in shaping AI’s future. The United States’ Inflation Reduction Act and the European Union’s Digital Compass plan are notable examples, collectively authorizing about $100 billion in AI-related expenditures for 2024–2028. Evercore stresses these efforts reflect a strategic push to maintain leadership amid heightened competition, particularly from China. This aligns with governments’ increasing urgency to secure economic and technological advantages.

Geopolitical tensions further intensify the race for AI dominance, prompting companies to diversify supply chains and strengthen collaborations with allied nations. This dynamic fuels AI investment as much from a security perspective as economic opportunity. Evercore underlines that this combination of aggressive corporate spending and favorable government policies supports an environment conducive to sustained sector growth.

Analyst Scenarios: Possible Futures for AI Investment

• Best-case: AI investments accelerate beyond expectations, aided by global regulatory support and novel applications, resulting in a $3 trillion GDP increase by 2030.
• Base-case: AI investments grow 18% annually, with manageable regulatory and geopolitical challenges, contributing $2 trillion to GDP by 2030.
• Worst-case: Growth slows to 10% annually due to regulatory fragmentation and supply disruptions, limiting AI’s GDP contribution to $1.2 trillion by 2030.

AI: Market Outlook Through 2030

With AI investment growth projected near double-digit rates annually, Evercore underscores the technology sector’s robust expansion phase extending well beyond 2025. Leading companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia are positioned to remain central figures due to their sizable R&D investments and market influence.

Furthermore, the policy landscape in the U.S. and Europe remains a crucial support pillar. Multibillion-dollar programs seek to foster innovation while addressing risks, underscoring AI’s strategic importance on a global scale. For investors and stakeholders, monitoring these developments is key, as AI’s influence on markets and economies will likely intensify over the coming years.

In summary, Evercore’s report confirms the AI investment boom as a durable economic force, with potential additions of up to $2 trillion to global GDP by 2030. This highlights AI’s growing centrality in shaping future market and policy trends.