Yemen’s southern separatist leader, Aidarous al-Zubaidi, escaped the scheduled crisis talks in Riyadh on January 7, 2026, by failing to board his flight. This development casts uncertainty on de-escalation efforts amid escalating conflict and a burgeoning Saudi-UAE rift over Yemen’s southern instability. Despite Saudi pressure and the threat of air strikes, Zubaidi chose to remain in Aden to oversee military and security operations rather than attend the summit.

Escaping Riyadh Talks Highlights Severe Political Breakdown

Al-Zubaidi’s no-show at the Riyadh talks, which aimed to address the southern Yemen crisis, marks a sharp deterioration in the fragile political situation. His Southern Transitional Council (STC), backed by the UAE, maintains control over Aden and significant parts of southern Yemen. Following his absence, the Saudi-backed Yemeni Presidential Council swiftly expelled Zubaidi, accusing him of high treason. Charges include inciting rebellion, attacking constitutional authorities, and civilian abuses. The council also dismissed Aden’s governor, Ahmed Lamlas, replacing him with Abdulrahman al‑Yafie.

Senior STC official Amr Al Beidh confirmed that Aden remains under STC control and stated Saudi Arabia threatened to bomb the city if Zubaidi failed to appear at the talks. Beidh justified Zubaidi’s decision by emphasizing the need to avoid a security vacuum. Meanwhile, other STC delegates did travel to Riyadh to initiate intra-southern dialogue under Saudi mediation, though leadership in Zubaidi’s absence remains unresolved.

Saudi-UAE Rift Widens Amid Clashes and Military Actions

The outbreak of clashes last month between the UAE-backed STC and the Saudi-supported internationally recognised government has shattered the coalition fighting the Iran-backed Houthis. Saudi Arabia has viewed the STC’s recent territorial expansion near its southern border as a direct threat to its security. Consequently, Saudi coalition forces conducted more than 15 limited pre-emptive airstrikes targeting armed movements around al-Dhalea province, Zubaidi’s birthplace.

The UAE, which initially deployed troops alongside Saudi forces in Yemen in 2015, withdrew those troops last month under Saudi pressure but continues to support the STC financially and politically, advocating for de-escalation. Saudi authorities asked STC Vice President Abdulrahman al-Mahrami to assist in stabilizing the situation after signs of STC force mobilization. Al-Mahrami had met the Saudi defense minister in Riyadh shortly before the escalation.

Escaping Talks Signals Ongoing Regional Security Challenges

By escaping the Riyadh negotiations, Aidarous al-Zubaidi exposed the deep divisions within Yemen’s political landscape and the Gulf’s complex alliance dynamics. A curfew from 9 p.m. to 6 a.m. is in effect across Aden as government forces push closer to the port city amidst STC control on the ground. This instability threatens regional security and could influence global oil markets given Yemen’s strategic position near vital shipping routes and the prominent Gulf states’ involvement.

Investors and policymakers should closely monitor the persistent Saudi-UAE discord and rising conflict in southern Yemen, as these tensions obstruct peace prospects and may prolong the civil war. Escaping from dialogue by a leading separatist figure like Zubaidi highlights the enduring challenges affecting stability in this volatile geopolitical hotspot.