Zambia’s private sector demonstrated notable resilience in November 2025 as the Stanbic Bank Zambia Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 51.3 from 50.8 the previous month. This signals continued economic expansion despite ongoing power supply disruptions and rising input costs. The sector’s ability to sustain growth amid these challenges highlights its operational resilience and adaptability.

Private Sector Shows Resilience Despite Power Disruptions

The rise in the PMI above the long-term average of 48.9 confirms that Zambia’s private businesses are navigating complex obstacles while maintaining growth momentum. New business inflows remained positive, though the pace slowed to the lowest in three months, reflecting ongoing demand but tempered optimism. Load shedding and power interruptions led to a marginal contraction in overall business activity for the second consecutive month, slightly easing in severity.

Employment was a significant bright spot, increasing at the fastest pace seen since January 2018. Companies appear to be recruiting proactively to mitigate operational difficulties and to handle the inflow of new orders. Musenge Komeki, Head of Sales at Stanbic Bank, commented, “The private sector showed a modest improvement in business conditions in November. Growth was supported by greater new orders and the fastest employment increase since early 2018, but output fell slightly for a second month, partly due to power shortages.”

Sectoral Performance and Rising Cost Pressures

Sectorally, agriculture stood out by expanding both output and new orders, underscoring its robust positioning amid prevailing headwinds. Meanwhile, construction and services sectors experienced growth in incoming new business but did not see corresponding increases in production output, indicating continued operational constraints.

Input costs climbed sharply at the fastest rate since May 2025. This surge was driven by rising fuel and electricity prices combined with higher labor expenses. Interestingly, despite escalating costs, many firms slightly reduced their selling prices to stimulate customer demand and maintain competitive market shares.

Looking ahead, business confidence remains positive but declined to its lowest point since January 2025. This caution reflects uncertainties regarding economic recovery amid domestic challenges and broader external pressures. Such sentiments suggest companies are balancing hopeful expansion plans with prudent risk management.

Private Sector Resilience Amidst Economic Headwinds

In summary, Zambia’s private sector displayed resilience by posting a PMI of 51.3 in November 2025, continuing the upward trend from October’s 50.8, despite recurring load shedding and inflationary cost pressures. Employment growth surged to its strongest rate since early 2018, while output contracted modestly for a second month. Agriculture’s dual growth in output and orders contrasted with the more restrained performance in construction and services.

As input costs reached their highest rate of increase in over six months, firms responded by adjusting prices downward to stimulate sales. Business confidence, though still optimistic, softened to a near-year low, underscoring lingering uncertainties. Investors and policymakers should focus on how this resilience shapes Zambia’s economic trajectory, particularly the capacity to sustain growth amid ongoing infrastructural and cost challenges.